A simple rule of economics says that rates/prices are adjusted by a simple ratio of supply and demand. And when demand ends up being greater than supply, don't be surprised if 2024 brings holidays or plane tickets at prices at least 15% higher than in 2023. Let's see the official figures released by the European Union, but also by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Compared to 2022, almost all EU Member States recorded increases in 2023
Tourism in the European Union continued to show signs of recovery following the pandemic, and last year the estimated number of nights spent in tourist accommodation units in the EU reached 2,92 billion, exceeding by 1,6% the level of 2019, before the pandemic (2,87 billion), being a record year for the accommodation sector in the EU bloc, according to the data published by the European Statistics Office (Eurostat).
Last year, 171 million more nights were spent in tourist accommodation units in the European Union compared to 2022 (6,3%), mainly due to the increase in the number of international visitors (146 million) and, to a lesser extent measure, of the number of internal visitors (25 million). The level of tourism (based on nights spent in tourist accommodation units) was 25% higher than ten years ago (in 2013 there were 2,33 billion nights spent in tourist accommodation units in the European Union).
Compared to 2022, almost all EU Member States recorded increases in 2023, with only Luxembourg reporting a decline of 0,1%. In Malta and Cyprus , the increase exceeded 20%, and in eight other countries it exceeded 10% (Slovakia, Latvia, Bulgaria , Austria, Czech Republic, Portugal , Romania and Greece ). In absolute terms, the largest increase in overnight stays was in Germany (32,8 million) and Spain (32,3 million). After three years with a significantly lower share of international visitors (respectively 29%, 32% and 44% of all overnight stays in 2020, 2021 and 2022), foreign tourists were responsible for 46% of the 2,92 billion overnight stays in 2023. This is a share close to the pre-pandemic level (47%).
In the accommodation sector, hotels and guesthouses were the dominant segment, with 1,8 billion nights (63% of the total), followed by holiday accommodation and other short stays (24%) and campsites (13%) .
IATA estimates: at the end of 2023, air travel demand will exceed the level of 2019
For their part, representatives of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) have published air travel performance data for the month of November 2023, indicating that air travel demand exceeded 99% of 2019 levels. Total traffic in November 2023 (measured in passenger kilometers -paid or RPK) is up 29,7% from November 2022. Globally, traffic is now at 99,1% of November 2019 levels.
International traffic increased by 26,4% compared to November 2022. The Asia-Pacific region continued to report the best annual results (+63,8%), with all regions recording improvements compared to the previous year. In November 2023, international RPKs reached 94,5% of November 2019 levels. Domestic traffic for November 2023 increased by 34,8% compared to November 2022. Total domestic traffic in November 2023 was 6,7% above November 2019 levels. Growth was particularly strong in China (+272%), as the country recovered from COVID travel restrictions that were still in place a year ago. Domestic travel in the US , benefiting from increased demand during the Thanksgiving holiday period, reached a new record, expanding by +9,1% compared to November 2019.
Statistical data on International Passenger Markets
Airlines in the Asia-Pacific region saw a 63,8% increase in traffic in November compared to November 2022, which was the strongest annual pace compared to the other regions. Capacity increased by 58,0% and load factor increased by 2,9 percentage points to 82,6%.
European airline traffic in November increased by 14,8% compared to November 2022. Capacity increased by 15,2% and load factor decreased by 0,3 percentage points to 83,3%.
Middle East airlines saw 18,6% increase in traffic in November compared to November 2022. November capacity increased by 19,0% year-on-year and load factor decreased by 0,2 .77,4 percentage points, reaching XNUMX%.
North American carriers experienced a 14,3% increase in traffic in November compared to the same period in 2022. Capacity increased by 16,3% and load factor decreased by 1,4 percentage points, reaching 80,0%.
Latin American airline traffic increased by 20,0% compared to November 2022. Capacity in November increased by 17,7% and load factor increased by 1,7 percentage points, reaching 84,9%, the highest of all regions.
African airlines saw a 22,1% increase in RPKs in November compared to a year ago. Capacity in November 2023 increased by 29,6% and load factor fell by 4,3 percentage points to 69,7%, the lowest of all regions.
TIP – even if you weren't used to planning and paying for vacations in advance, now is the time to start getting used to paying for your accommodation in advance. In the case of plane tickets, from the experience of 2023, I noticed that the differences in fares are extremely small even if you search and pay for them months in advance.
